Reports
Detention for a Supply Shock?
Mar 22
European rate markets whipsawed from pricing cuts to hikes on the oil move. Central banks are still fighting the last …
An (Overly) Hawkish Fed
Mar 18
50 Percent Oil Price Spikes
Mar 17
The Iran war/Hormuz disruption has produced one of the most extreme three-month oil moves in decades (up 75% from recend …
Is 'Hormuz' Latin For 'Gut Check'?
Mar 10
Economic incentives and history make it unlikely that Hormuz will be shut for long.
The Maestro at 100
Mar 06
Alan Greenspan, arguably the greatest central banker, turns 100. In an era of dot plots and forward guidance, the “maestro’s” …
Oil Shocks Usually Fade
Mar 05
Oil shocks have rarely lasted more than six months.
A Square Deal For Capital, Not Labor
Mar 05
Block's job reductions could be an omen of coming labor (and political) disruptions.
OpenAI at Scale, or OpenAI on Sale?
Mar 05
OpenAI is telling an audacious growth story, that it just might hit.
The $300 Billion Sand Spread
Feb 20
Why we are cautious on Nvidia but bullish on AI.
Minimum Weight on Maximum Employment
Feb 17
"Inflation Targeting" means the Fed is giving short-shrift to employment, the part of its remit on which Congress was more …
Mandates and Manna
Feb 14
Fertility decline is a function of culture and values.
Time and Event Horizons
Feb 12
Why Software Looks Like A Buy
Dot Com: Bubble or Panic?
Feb 10
Why the Fed Should Be Aggressive
Feb 10
When AI can rival the Pietà in craft, fretting over a few tenths on inflation is like the Medicis worrying …
AI Index Selloff Accelerates
Feb 05
The AI Return Index has underperformed by nearly 6% in 6 days, a level that has been quickly reversed in …
Warsh for President
Jan 30
The Fed’s Palmito Ranch Moment
Jan 29
The success of the Fed may be measured far less by the inflation rate than by gigawatts of compute capacity.
AI Valuation Report
Jan 27
Silver on a Tear
Jan 27
Introducing the Chartshark AI and Non-AI Indices
Jan 26