Reports

Subscribe
Software Valuations Remain Attractive
Apr 18
Software Valuations Remain Attractive

We would still buy the software sector even after its strongest week in nearly twenty years.

Is OpenAI Toast?
Apr 17
Is OpenAI Toast?

We think AI will be a winner-take-most market, and Anthropic has gotten pole position with the smartest model.

Iran Trades Like (Half) Liberation Day
Apr 14
Iran Trades Like (Half) Liberation Day

Market swoons after both the tariff unveiling and war in Iran have been good buying opportunities.

The Most Depressing Chart
Apr 10
The Most Depressing Chart

The fertility decline continues.

SpaceX: $20 Billion of Revenue, $2 Trillion of Belief
Apr 10
SpaceX: $20 Billion of Revenue, $2 Trillion of Belief

The most incredible company of our time is sporting an even more amazing valuation.

Buy Korea
Apr 07
Buy Korea

Samsung's results show the strength of the AI cycle.

Breaking the Ride-Share Cartel
Mar 31
Breaking the Ride-Share Cartel

Uber's share of the pie is hard to justify.

When the Invasion Starts, the Rally Likely Begins
Mar 30
When the Invasion Starts, the Rally Likely Begins

Markets have typically rallied at the start of ground campaigns.

Iran Invasion Odds Up to 70%
Mar 26
Iran Invasion Odds Up to 70%

Prediction markets expect an April invasion.

Recession Odds at One Third
Mar 25
Recession Odds at One Third

Polymarket odds of recession have risen by an amount similar to the odds of $110 oil.

Detention for a Supply Shock?
Mar 22
Detention for a Supply Shock?

European rate markets whipsawed from pricing cuts to hikes on the oil move. Central banks are still fighting the last …

An (Overly) Hawkish Fed
Mar 18
An (Overly) Hawkish Fed
50 Percent Oil Price Spikes
Mar 17
50 Percent Oil Price Spikes

The Iran war/Hormuz disruption has produced one of the most extreme three-month oil moves in decades (up 75% from recend …

Is 'Hormuz' Latin For 'Gut Check'?
Mar 10
Is 'Hormuz' Latin For 'Gut Check'?

Economic incentives and history make it unlikely that Hormuz will be shut for long.

The Maestro at 100
Mar 06
The Maestro at 100

Alan Greenspan, arguably the greatest central banker, turns 100. In an era of dot plots and forward guidance, the “maestro’s” …

Oil Shocks Usually Fade
Mar 05
Oil Shocks Usually Fade

Oil shocks have rarely lasted more than six months.

A Square Deal For Capital, Not Labor
Mar 05
A Square Deal For Capital, Not Labor

Block's job reductions could be an omen of coming labor (and political) disruptions.

OpenAI at Scale, or OpenAI on Sale?
Mar 05
OpenAI at Scale, or OpenAI on Sale?

OpenAI is telling an audacious growth story, that it just might hit.

The $300 Billion Sand Spread
Feb 20
The $300 Billion Sand Spread

Why we are cautious on Nvidia but bullish on AI.

Minimum Weight on Maximum Employment
Feb 17
Minimum Weight on Maximum Employment

"Inflation Targeting" means the Fed is giving short-shrift to employment, the part of its remit on which Congress was more …